曾对中国提出三大期许　李资政：中国在三方面有进步

● 新加坡《联合早报》 张从兴 游润恬 邓莉蓉 2008年12月17日

　　内阁资政李光耀在他的个人回忆录中曾对中国提出三大期许，即成为一个现代化、有自信和负责任的国家。如今，他认为中国在这三方面皆有进步，特别是在这次全球金融海啸爆发后竭力稳定国内经济，同时不让人民币贬值，已是一种负责任的表现。

　　他指出，中国对这次金融危机的反应相当谨慎，但仍愿意借贷5亿美元给巴基斯坦，也没在这个时候让人民币贬值以刺激出口，都显示它正尝试在国际社会上扮演一个负责任的角色。

　　“我想中国了解如果要让世界知道它的和平崛起是可信的，它在这场危机中就得要有负责任的表现，但是当它日后变得更加强大时，是否还会维持负责任的态度，这得由下一代人去评定。我希望到时候中国将发现这已是个多极化的世界，不可能再回到汉朝或唐朝那个以中国为宇宙中心的时代。这是个有着许多权力中心、力量和创意的世界，中国不可能独自发掘所有的新科技。这个世界还有美国、欧洲、俄罗斯及印度等，已是个多元化世界，每个人都是相互关联的。我希望在未来三四十年，中国的下一代领导人会明白这一点。如果他们能够明白，对每个人来说，那将会是个更安全的世界。”

有时显得过度自信

　　另一方面，李资政也认为中国人如今已越来越有自信，甚至有时候会显得过度自信。

　　他指出，北京奥运会成功举行，让中国人感到无限自豪，但这场盛会所呈献出的表象同中国的实际能力是存有落差的，可能需要好几年的时间才能填补这个差距。同时，他也认为中国仍得花上好几十年的时间，才能在广泛领域同美国、欧洲和日本争一日之长短。

　　中国经过30年的改革开放和建设发展，不少大城市已彻底改头换面。李资政观察中国一些地区如北京、上海、大连和沿海城市，确实已经更加现代化，但整体来说，中国还不是个现代化的国家。他预计中国还需要二三十年时间，才能把其他地区也提升至同等的水平。

　　此外，他也谈到美国应重视同亚细安加强经贸关系，否则再过十几二十年，东南亚必将融入中国的市场，而美国到时便只能成为次要的市场。

　　他指出，美国前总统克林顿的贸易代表巴尔舍夫斯基当初正是基于这个原因，才说服克林顿和新加坡谈判签订双边自由贸易协定，同时也作为美国同其他亚细安国家签订自贸协定的基础。马来西亚和泰国后来也分别同美国展开谈判，但至今还未谈成。

　　李资政说，中国前总理朱镕基在1999年到文莱访问时，曾提出同亚细安建立贸易联系或成立中国—亚细安自由贸易区的建议，这其实是个战略性的举动，目的是要将亚细安并入中国的发展版图，让亚细安把中国的崛起视为机会而不是威胁。

　　如今，中国和日本已建立紧密的贸易关系，而中日的贸易总量现在已超过日本和美国的贸易总量。

　　“我相信美国有很多地方需要赶上，它或许没料到情况会发展得这么快，但这确实发生了。我们已同美国签订自贸协定并对此感到非常满意，它让我们维持双边贸易和投资关系，而新加坡人到美国也是免签证的。其实，整个亚细安都应该同美国建立自贸联系。”

用图片讲述中国改革开放的故事

　　中国改革开放的故事，可以有很多种说法，一种说法可以从一张邓小平在飞机上向众人挥手的黑白照片说起。

　　1978年11月12日，邓小平以中国第一副总理身份抵达新加坡展开历史性访问，时任总理的李光耀资政和当时的副总理吴庆瑞博士率领内阁部长到巴耶利峇机场迎接。那次访问让邓小平留下深刻印象，把此行的所见所闻带回中国，不久后中国共产党便在12月宣布改革开放大计。

　　为配合昨天的对话会，主办机构也在香格里拉大酒店会场外举办“中国改革开放30年回顾图片展”，通过一系列由我国新闻、通讯及艺术部和中国大使馆提供的黑白和彩色照片，展示中国30年来改革开放的里程碑和成就。

　　邓小平30年前访问新加坡时，随行的中央电视台记者也对他的行程进行了全面的采访和拍摄，内容包括他和李资政在一场重要晚宴上发表谈话表达友好情谊，还有他参观市容并在裕廊山顶植树的轻松画面。这段约10分钟的录像也在会场播放，让来宾了解当年邓小平访新的点滴。

张小康：中国仍面对许多挑战

　　经过30年改革开放的中国虽已融入世界，成为全球经济的重要组成部分，但仍然是个发展中国家，也面对不少严峻挑战。

　　中国驻新加坡大使张小康昨天在中国改革开放30年回顾与展望对话会上发表演讲时，指出中国经济发展的现状与挑战。

　　张大使说，中国生产力不发达的状况并未根本改变，人均收入水平为世界平均水平的29%，排在世界100位之后。

　　“中国面临的挑战是严峻的，发展不均衡，进一步发展受到资源、能源和环境等瓶颈的制约，自主创新能力不强，粗放型增长方式尚未根本改变。中国的社会主义市场经济体制还不完善，民主法制还不健全，一些社会问题还比较突出等。”

　　张小康说，中国政府提出科学发展观的重大战略，就是要把目前所面临的各种挑战转化为进一步发展的机遇。

　　大使昨天向与会者介绍中国改革开放所取得的成就。

　　她指出，30年间，中国经济年均增长9.8%，总量跃居世界第四，年进出口总额从206亿美元（约304亿新元）增长到2万1700亿美元，跃居世界第三；人均国内生产总值（GDP）从1978年的190美元增加到现在的2461美元；绝对贫困人口从2亿5000万减少到现在的1500万。

　　她指出，经济持续发展使累计创造的就业岗位达到3亿7000万个，实现了两亿多农村劳动力向非农业转移。政府大力提升和普及国民教育、加强医疗制度，还建立农村村民和城市居民自治制度，实现公开、民主监督和基层直接选举。

　　此外，中国的发展为其他国家提供了大量投资、贸易和就业机会。中国的GDP占全球的比重由1％上升到6％，中国经济对世界经济增长的贡献率超过10％，对国际贸易增长的贡献率超过12％。

　　张大使认为，中国在30年内改革开放的成功经验，有四个因素。即专注发展，持续而深入地改革；循序渐进，处理好改革、发展与稳定的关系；坚持全面而持久地扩大对外开放、积极参与全球化过程，以及坚持独立自主、互利共赢，走和平发展道路。

　　大使也提到，李资政是中国改革开放的见证人和中新关系的奠基人之一，对中国的发展道路有着独到见解，为中新关系的持续深入发展倾注了大量心血。

已从苏州工业园合作累积经验 新中合作发展天津生态城将更顺利

　　新加坡和中国过去30年互动频密，并联手展开大规模的双边合作项目。内阁资政李光耀表示新中两国已从苏州工业园区的合作中累积经验，双方这些年来已相互加强了解，因此相信两国接下来合作发展的天津生态城计划，将能减少磨合上的困难，并更顺利展开。

　　他昨天在配合中国改革开放30周年而举办的对话会上谈到新中过去的合作经验，并对未来的双边合作表示乐观。他以新中在1994年合作开发苏州工业园区为例，指出他当初原以为新加坡人和中国人会说同样的语言，有着共同的文化背景，双方应能互相了解，但是实际上两国不论在行政制度和思维方面，都存有很大的差异，所以刚开始的两年，建立合作关系非常艰难。

　　他回忆说，因为当时中央和地方政府的要求不同，前者希望新方转移建设工业园区的技术软件，但后者却强调要有具体的建设发展作为绩效。这让新加坡感到困惑。此外，中国官员也不太能接受由新加坡人教他们怎么做事，促使我们得改变作法和沟通方式。

　　“我们在苏州有个受华文教育的官员，他经常会和中国官员聊天。有一天，中国官员问他：你的国家几岁了？你要教我怎么做事？我的国家已经5000岁了。所以，他已经认定你是不能告诉他该怎么做的。你可以做的就是告诉他们，这是我给你的提议，让你参考，如果你觉得这是个不错的点子，不妨考虑采纳。这就是他们的心态，他觉得你没什么可以教他的，除了新科技以外，而这也是他们很快便能学会的。所以，这就是我们采用的方式，而我们也习惯了，现在我们彼此互相了解，因此我想这个新的生态城计划，问题将会比较少。”

　　在这同时，新中两国也在经贸官员的培训上紧密合作，每年有大批中国官员到新加坡取经，每几个月也有四五十名中国市长前来我国接受城市规划、政府结构、管理作风等培训，如今他们对新加坡的制度已相当熟悉。

选择了更聪明的路

　　当新华社记者张永兴询问他中国未来30年的发展前景如何时，李资政表示他无法预测中国的未来，但他相信中国目前是走在正确的道路上。其中一个原因是中国没有效仿日本和韩国的作法，把进口商品挡在门外，然后试图在汽车、电视或电子产品的制造方面培育优势行业。相反的，中国依循新加坡的模式，即我们欢迎所有的跨国企业到新加坡落户，除了技术和知识的转移，也为新加坡人制造就业机会。

　　“中国也采用同样的模式，与其保护国内的汽车工业而拒绝外国进口，现在世界几乎所有的汽车制造商，不论是以独立经营或是合资方式，都聚集在中国。它们需要聘用中国人、中国工程师、设计师和技工等。今天，中国已经可以生产自己的奇瑞小型轿车，20年后，它们便能生产类似立胜或是宝马的名牌车，30年后可能还会制造马赛地。因为它们的员工已经掌握了相关的技能。我想它们是选择了更聪明的道路，先选择开放向他人学习，然后迎头赶上并勇于创新，再去同别人竞争。这才是中国要走的路。”

　　李资政说，中国目前还未把重点放在研究与开发上，这也就是为什么还没有中国内地科学家获颁诺贝尔奖。但是，它绝对有能力设立研究机构和大学来培育这方面的人才。

　　他指出，由于中国的人口庞大，因此得维持制造业的竞争力，以提供足够的就业机会去应付劳动人口的需求，但在下个发展阶段，中国也必须提升工人的技术水平，以吸引更多技术密集型的新投资，同时发展其国内的服务业。

MM optimistic on China

By Li Xueying, Political Correspondent, The Straits Times, 17 December 2008

THIRTY years after the Middle Kingdom threw open its gates and embarked on economic reforms, it will enter a tougher phase of progress, predicts Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew.

As China moves into the second stage of its economic development, it needs to upgrade workers' skills and attract more capital- and skills-intensive foreign investments, he said yesterday.

Eventually, it will have to look at inventing its own products just as the Japanese did. But Mr Lee is sanguine about its ability to do so, saying China is 'on the right track'.

'She did not follow the Japanese and the Koreans in blocking out imports and trying to build champions for the motor cars or the TV screens or electronics.'

Instead, it 'copied the Singapore model, which was to bring in the multinationals, let them compete among themselves'. He said: 'I think they have taken the smarter route: open up, I learn from you, I catch up. Then I innovate and I compete with you.'

Mr Lee was speaking at a dialogue marking the 30th anniversary of China leader Deng Xiaoping's landmark decision to open up the country to trade, entrepreneurship and foreign investments.

In the previous 29 years, China's economy was state-planned. Mr Deng's move propelled China into becoming the major economic power it is today, with annual growth of 9.8 per cent.

Yesterday's event was organised by the Singapore Chinese Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the Chinese embassy and networking club Business China.

Over one hour, Mr Lee fielded nine questions from the audience of 600 academics, businessmen, students and Chinese officials, touching on aspects ranging from China's greatest advantage (its abundance of talent) to its role in the current financial crisis (a limited one).

And just as three decades ago, when he shared with Mr Deng his belief in China's ability to progress, Mr Lee yesterday remained optimistic about its prospects.

A Chinese journalist asked him: 'What advice do you have for China, as the largest developing country goes into the next 10 to 30 years of development?'

Mr Lee said China would have to keep its manufacturing alive to provide jobs for its numerous workers. Thus, it has to upgrade workers' skills and attract more capital- and skills-intensive investments.

'Can she do that? I think she can. Can she do that as easily as (in the first phase)? No, it's not so easy because the second stage is always more difficult.'

Citing the making of flat-screen TVs, he said it 'will have to explore and find out who are willing to invest and bring these skills and technology to China'.

After that, it will have to go one step further - 'invent, and like the Japanese, produce new products, innovate'.

Said Mr Lee: 'I cannot predict how China will go but so far I believe she's going on the right track.'

For instance, it did not try to protect its car market, letting in foreign auto makers. 'And they have to employ Chinese - Chinese engineers, Chinese designers, Chinese workmen and today they are producing a Chinese little car called the Chery. In 20 years, they can produce you a Lexus or a BMW, in 30 years, a Mercedes, because look at the numbers that you have trained in these skills.'

The end result: the Chinese will be as innovative and creative as the Japanese, the Finns or the Americans, producing Nobel Prize winners, Mr Lee predicts.

China's economic reforms beg the question of whether social and political reforms will follow. Mr Lee said its government is adjusting its style step by step, as 'technology will force a change in the nature of information flows'. For instance, after Beijing forced foreign journalists out of Tibet after riots in March, it got 'the raw end of the deal' in publicity.

It learnt its lesson, and during the Sichuan earthquake in May when 69,000 died, China's top political leaders 'turned up, carried babies and shook hands... acting as leaders in the West would do because the TV was there'.

Looking forward, Mr Lee said: 'Whether it will be one man, one vote for the President of the Republic, I doubt because I think that won't work.' But he added that its township elections have been 'useful' as they deter corruption.

'So gradually they'll move forward. What the end result will be, I don't know. But they're not going to rush forward, that's for sure.'

Speaking to The Straits Times, China's ambassador to Singapore Zhang Xiaokang said Mr Lee's advice on the need to upgrade China's workers is important. 'China is moving forward on services but it should not forget it's a populous country that needs manufacturing for the jobs.'

Wanted: People like her

Singapore needs to co-opt 50 Chinese steeped in the culture each year 

PRIVATE banker Leiny Tan was born in Wuhan city, grew up in Guangdong province and got her university degree in the United States.

But she eventually decided to make Singapore her home after arriving here as a student in 1991.

Now a citizen, the 40-year-old is in charge of the China market for US banking giant Citigroup, responsible for managing the finances of super-rich Chinese nationals based here and in China.

As a former China national, Ms Tan knows how to woo clients from her old homeland. 'Knowing the language is an advantage as we need to be very clear and precise,' she told The Straits Times. 'Understanding the culture is another advantage - the Chinese are very private about their families, but if I ask them the right questions, for instance about their children, they're happy to open up.'

Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew wants to see 50 Chinese nationals-turned-Singaporeans like Ms Tan every year, 'co-opted' to help Singapore engage China.

Speaking at a dialogue yesterday, Mr Lee said students from China may come here to master English. But if they come after secondary school, the depth of their Chinese 'can never be shaken'.

'So maybe we can co-opt 50 of them, and then we can bring them back to China to do business on our behalf.'

In 50 years, Mr Lee envisaged East Asia and China 'will be where the action is'. And Singapore needs some 300 talented people a year with the cultural background to connect with those in China.

'Our problem going forward is that our best and brightest do not want to spend their lives concentrating on China,' said Mr Lee. 'They want to go to America, they want to... see greener pastures in the English-educated world.'

So to engage China, Singapore now depends on its older generation who went through Chinese-stream education, and are familiar with Chinese allegories like Romance of the Three Kingdoms, he said.

Younger Singaporeans are conversant in Mandarin, but are lost once the conversation leaves familiar subjects.

Said Mr Lee: 'You (the Chinese) can sit down with the Taiwanese businessmen and while the whole night away drinking because you can talk about so many common things you share in history and culture...But with a Singaporean, it's hard facts, hard facts, and there isn't this cultural background.'

Mr Lee made the point in his reply to a question on how Singapore and China can work together looking forward. 'We are both learning more about each other,' he said. Citing the Suzhou Industrial Park built 14 years ago, he said the initial years were 'truly troublesome'.

Singapore 'must always remember' the experience of one of its officials working on the project, he said.

'One day, the Chinese said to him: 'How old is your country? You want to teach me how to do this? My country is 5,000 years old'. So he decided that you cannot tell them do this, do that. All you can do is (to say), I suggest to you, you examine this and if you think it's a good idea, you pick it up.'

So, Mr Lee anticipates fewer problems with the Tianjin eco-city Singapore is now helping to develop. 'We understand their style and they also understand us.'